Is the Market Poised for a Breakout? Key Insights to Watch in February 2025
Very good to see you. We wanted to record a special look at the markets video today. It is the first week of February. A lot of people feeling a little bit anxious. We've seen a lot of volatility, which is why I wanted to touch base with you, because I know you live in these numbers. What should we be thinking right now as we take a look at the markets?
Yeah. So you know, 2024 was a great year. The S p5 100 went up 23% but what a lot of people have to understand was a lot of that was up till July, and in the fourth quarter of the S p5 100, even with the Santa rally only returned about 2% now we had the election. We had the Santa run. Now we have a new president, so we're seeing a lot of emotional Based Investing. So what we want to understand is really, since July, we have been in a sideways market where it's almost like the analogy of spinning your wheels and we're going up, and then we're going down, we're going up, we're going down. And what a lot of people don't realize it's not really a great time to be invested in the market can be be a little frustrated. One day you're up, one day you're down, and just a teeter totter emotions. So what people need to understand is that we are beyond the 24th month of the market cycle. I think we're now almost in a march a month 27 and and bull runs typically Die Hard. So there's reason to be cautious. The other thing that's cautious, a couple other points is usually the trends go up, they go sideways, then they go down. Now, with that speaking, you know, we have a new president, and you know, we have some new policies that you know maybe could drive economic growth, and that's really what we're going to be looking to February or March to see how that economic growth will go. From our standpoint, though, we're managing it, from a cautious perspective, we were still in the market, because you don't ever want to be out of the market unless it's a catastrophic downturn. So we're just kind of, you know, we've taken our foot off the gas a little bit. We're being cautious, because we understand that while prices are going towards those record highs that, you know, the media likes to put out on our faces, that even with the price being high, the momentum is down, and that's a divergence, and that's never a good signal. So there are some things to really be aware of going forward. But you know, February is going to be a big month for us there. I see, okay, when there is this kind of volatility in the markets, a lot of people sit on the sidelines, so just to ask their question, Is now a good time to be buying into the market, yes, the answer is no, now is not a good time. And we talk about this in my mastermind group all the time. FOMO fear of missing out, right? Well, I could have gotten two or 3% more. Two or 3% more in one year is not going to have an impact on your life, but buying at the top of the market. And as I said, you know, the media has always got, hey, today's a market high. Today's a market high. We've done videos on this behavioral finance. This is the point of maximum financial risk. So if you're buying in at a bull market that is past this cycle. You're at New Market highs. You have momentum going down. And as I said, bull runs typically Die Hard. I would say, Just be cautious in going in the market, especially into equities. So as you mentioned, kind of we're all looking at February right now, if we do have a down market, how should investors be reacting? Well, you know, there's a two schools of thought, you know, you can, you can stay invested in the market through the ups and downs. We we've done that. Or there's the the tactical way of getting out now, I say the tactical way of getting out of the marketing making defensive adjustments that is based on very advanced market analysis. And you have to understand what's going on in the markets and why you are getting out at certain times that type of analysis. You know, one has a crystal ball, but you're reacting to what the big money is doing. That type of analysis can be very impactful. However, Dow bar and several behavioral finance institutions have done decades of research on this that people don't make those defensive moves on that they make those defensive moves when they have lost a ton of money and they can't stomach the loss anymore, so they sell out at the bottom, and then they don't get back in until they're well into the recovery or near the top. So you know the answer to that is, if you are going to stay in the market if you're a passive investor, which that's fine, you have to understand, and I use this casino analogy a lot. Are you $100 blackjack table player or a $5 blackjack table player? Everybody loves winning $100 but the pit in the stomach happens when you lose that $100 so now is a real good time to look at your portfolio. Understand at my very heavy inequities. Am I going to lose a lot of money if the market goes sideways, then you might want to start making adjustments. Now. Take those profits off the table, right? You want a couple good hands at the casino, take some chips, pay for your trip, and then you can continue gambling in a much in a much more comfortable way.
I'm glad we got to do this deep dive, John, if somebody wants to speak about this in depth with you, to see if they are properly invested and according to their risk tolerance, how can they reach you? Yeah, well, you can always visit our website, www.gosecurus.com, and while you're on there, we have tons of videos on investing. You can also visit our podcast, the retire happy podcast with my good friend Tom O'Connell, specifically episode 99 where we interview my mentor, Joe Casey. We talk a lot about the markets and investing. And while you're on the website, you can visit the contact us tab, where you can schedule a 20 minute phone call where we'll answer any general questions. Or you can schedule a complimentary vision and clarity consultation, or if you like doing things the old fashioned way, give us call at the office, 858-758-9889, and they'll get you on My schedule. Great. John, thank You. Thank You. Erin,